Tag Archive | "statement analysis"

Aliayah Lunsford: Battered Child

From Statement Analysis blog (here).

Readers here knew that Aliayah Lunsford was a battered, unwanted child, living under the brutal domination of drug addicted mother, Lena Lunsford.

We learned from statements that:

  • Aliayah was dead, and that the mother reporting her missing was deceptive. (Please see prior analysis).
  • Aliayah was unwanted, left to herself, and unloved. Her aunt lived across the street and referenced Aliayah in the past tense; as if dead.

See related post here: Aliayah Lunsford: Dealing with the Unexpected

Lunsford has been arrested…again, this time for violating parole by getting high using bath salts. She had 7 children with the others all removed from her care by child protective services.

When the FBI used this photo, it confirmed that Aliayah was, in deed, a battered child. We learned that she was the ‘pariah’ of the children, scorned, alone and highly independent. When a 3 year old fends for herself, it is neglect. Where there is neglect, always look for drugs.

Lunsford was pregnant with twins, who were like born as “DAB” (Drug Affected Baby) who both would have experienced acute withdrawal pain from whatever their mother put them through pre-birth. Unfortunately, many states do not consider this “child abuse” because the twins were not considered “persons” until the moment of birth. Prior to the birth, the abuse was likely severe. What repercussions might occur from Lunsford’s substance abuse?

The withdrawal pain and shaking might be the least of the twins’ problems.

Fetal Alcohol Syndrome. (FAS)

Which is worse for a pre-born child, alcohol or drugs?

Alcohol and pregnancy do not mix. The development of the baby’s brain is impacted by alcohol use, especially in the first trimester, and can lead to a host of developmental disabilities, and sets up a child for a life time of struggle.

We once were given a visual demonstration in training.

An egg was cracked opened and gently dropped into a clear glass of vodka.

Next, the trainer went into the long list of health problems faced by FAS children versus a list of DAB children.

By the end of the lecture, the egg in the glass of vodka showed that it was ‘cooking’ from the alcohol.

Locals said Lena Lunsford continued to get pregnant in order to collect welfare benefits for herself, and would use the money for drugs. This was confirmed later when Lunsford was charged with fraud; that is, taking food stamps or other benefits, and trading them for cash so that drugs and alcohol could be purchased.

What did she do to Aliayah?

We know that when a child is reported missing, and the mother lies, the mother has a reason to lie.

We have covered a number of these cases and have know that when a mother lies, under any condition, while the child is missing, it spells doom for the child. Aliayah is another such victim.

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Statement Analysis of Lena Lunsford’s 911 Call

The 911 Call

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Statement Analysis

From the Statement Analysis blog (here)

The following is Statement Analysis of the 911 call, made 11 days ago, by Lena Lunsford, reporting her 3 year old child missing.

What do we look for in 911 calls?

Besides following the principles of Statement Analysis, we specifically look for some of the following red flags in 911 calls:

  1. Does the call begin with a greeting?
  2. Does the caller ask for help for the victim, or for herself?
  3. Does the caller frame the words “I’m sorry” for any reason, in the call?
  4. Does the caller disparage, in any way, the victim?


911 What is your emergency?

My baby’s missing.

Note that this is the first thing mentioned.

What is your address?

(address) I was out looking for her for over an hour.

Note that after answering the question that she provides additional information. When an answer goes beyond the scope of the question, every word is critical. What is it that is a priority to the caller that she goes beyond the address alone?

The subject wants police to know that she has been out looking for over an hour.

Please note that she does not say “I was looking for her” but “out” looking for her for “over an hour”. This is important as it is a reference to time; as all time references are significant.

How old? I need you to calm down.

I’m sorry she’s she’s only three.

Please note “I’m sorry”has entered into the subject’s language. This is always noted no matter why the subject is using these words (see Casey Anthony’s 911 call)

When was the last time you saw him?

It’s a girl. This morning. Real early. I went in and checked on her because she’s been sick with the flu.

Note that “because” tells us why, rather than simply answering the question. This goes beyond the realm of the question of what happened and goes to why something happened. Here she says that she checked on her “real early” because she was sick. Note that she “went in” and checked on her.

Note that sick with the flu is now mentioned.

Okay is it a male or female?

It’s a Girl

Note that “it’s” is reflective language; entering into the language of the operator.

A girl?


Ok you saw her this morning around 6:30?


That’s the last time you saw her was at 6:30 this morning?

Yes and then she laid back down and went back to sleep. And we went back to bed.

Note that she “laid back down” would indicate that she would have to be up in order to go back down.

Note that when a sentence begins with “And” the subject has missing information here.

Note that “we” went back to bed. Who is “we”? Is it she and Aliayah? Since “we” indicates unity or cooperation, was it she and her husband who went back to bed? She and another child? Who is the other part of the “we”?

Ok was the doors open or anything?

No the doors weren’t open.

Note that she uses reflective language (the language of the operator)

Were they locked?

Yes I think.

(Inuaudible) the residence?

It was difficult to hear the question but it sounded like who lives in the residence, of which the answer is important:

Me and my other kids.

She does not mention the husband or step father. This is not lost on the 911 operator who then asks:

Ok do you live with her father?


Note that other questions she answers but then adds information. Note here regarding who else resides there that she does not give additional information and is not bringing up her husband’s name.

Who is her father?

Her father is a guy named Eric Harris. He doesn’t even know that she exists.

Note that she references the father (male) as a “guy”

Ok and you’ve been looking for her for the past hour?

Yes I’ve looked everywhere (inaudible)

This is concerning.

First, “I’ve looked” is first person singular, but then she says,

“everywhere”. When someone says that they have looked “everywhere” they have no other places to search. This is akin to saying, “I’ve told you everything” therefore, there is nothing more to say. When someone says “I have looked everywhere” they are saying that there are no more places to look, a strong indication that she has no places to search; hence, out of hope.

What was she wearing when you put her back in bed?

She had a little pair of purple Dora pj’s. We went up all these streets. We went up all these streets.

The pronoun is changed to plural, “we”; which is repeated. If she is now speaking of herself and her children, please note that it is repeated:

this is sensitive.

She did not say that they searched for her; only that “we went up” these streets. If she does not tell us that they went up searching, we cannot say that they were searching. This correlates to what the lawyer said: children asked him for gas; and it fits what another neighbor said: he was out at his truck all morning and no one was searching, nor asking him if he had seen Aliayah.

If she went “up” by herself without the children, the change in pronoun is deceptive.

Also, that she went “up” ; something that is repeated. Does this mean that she went up, and that she did not find Aliayah, that Aliayah is “down” somewhere?

Have you been outside checking the area?

Please note that she checked “everywhere” but the operator asks this question anyway.

Yes I’ve drove up all the streets around here looking thinking that maybe she went outside or something. And I don’t think my mom would have came and got her because she’d have woke me up and stuff.

1. Please note that she uses for the third time the word “up” where Aliayah is not found. This may indicate that Aliayah will be found “down” somewhere; down in water, buried in a grave, et.c.

2. “all” the streets; with the same meaning at looking “everywhere”. All the streets “around here” have been looked so even though she has been thorough, she has not been located.

3. Note the inclusion of her thinking, even though it wasn’t ‘correct’ thinking.

4. Note the inclusion of “or something” which strongly indicates that Aliayah went out “or something”; what is the choice? It is she went outside “or” something else happened to her. She is giving police a choice. If she went out, we won’t find her because she has searched “everywhere” and on all the “streets around here” where Aliayah, “only three”could have gone. But since she didn’t, we then must conclude “or something” took place with Aliayah that Lena knows and is not sharing. This sentence is an indiction that Lena Lunsford is deceptively withholding information and would like to limit the searching. She does not want someone else to find Aliayah.

5. Lena introduces, with the word “And” to start the sentence (missing info) her “mom” to the operator. Her mom is significant to Lena and her mother should be carefully interviewed. Please also note that she tells us “because” which explains why something, rather than report what happened. Her mother would have wakened her “and stuff”; what stuff? Police should seek to learn if there has been any arguments, specifically about child care, between Lena and her own mother. What other “stuff” would the mother have done, besides woken Lena up?

Ok have you called your mother?

No I need to do that.

Did the operator just give Lena the idea that she should have called her mother? Now she “needs” to do it.

Please note that she allegedly drove around for an hour and did not call her mother. If she was searching for her child, would she not, after the first few minutes, called her mother? Why would she think that her mother could have had Aliayah ? Is this the type of family that takes a 3 year old without notice? How could a three year old leave without it being known?

This appears contrived and false.

Do you have a phone number for her?

Yes its (number).

What is her name?

Joanne Evans.

Joanne Evans?


Do you want to just call her real quick and call me right back so I know what’s going on ok?

This is unusual and may indicate that the 911 operator did not entirely trust the caller and wanted her to check with her mother. Better would have been to keep Lena on the line, give pauses to allow Lena to choose her own words, while the police were en route to the home. But it does not answer the question as to why she would need to call her mother when she was out searching “everywhere” (everywhere but…her mothers? everywhere, but…”down” where Aliayah can be located?)


911 what is your emergency?

This is Lena Lunsford my mom doesn’t have her.


She doesn’t have her she’s coming now. Oh my god.

You don’t know of any place she would have went there in the community? Is there a friend’s house nearby or somebody that she plays with?

No (crying)

Ok. Is there any place there in the community, a playground, or does she go to church anywhere there?

No. (crying) Help me find her.

The caller specifies her request for help: “help me find her”

I have an officer on the way mam, I need you to calm down ok. You’ve looked everywhere in the house


All the closets, under everything? Under every beds


Do you have a basement?


Its been checked too.

The passive language here suggests deception. It is likely that if police asked the children if they searched the basement, they would tell the police that they did not. Passive language is used to conceal identity often, or when a subject does not want to own a statement with the pronoun, “I” such as “I checked the basement too” especially since she said “I” previously, but then also said “we” drove up the streets…

Ok how about the vehicles outside?

Its been checked that’s what I used to go look for her.

She reported driving around for about an hour looking for her.

And you said that there’s other children in the residence?

Yes. (Noises)

Is she old enough where she would be able to reach the door handle?

Yes she is.

Oh my god. Here, please play with your brother for a minute. (talking to child)

What color is her hair?

She has brown hair and brown eyes.

Here the subject gives the additional info of the color of her eyes which would have been asked next. Was this rehearsed?

Do you know how much she weighs?

She weighs approximately 32 to 35 pounds.

Maybe a little more.

Ok. Do you know how tall she is?

Um I’m guessing around three feet I’m, I’m not for sure right now I’m sorry.

Please note that this is the 2nd time she has said “I’m sorry” to a 911 operator.

That’s ok. Was there anybody else in the residence with you this morning, any other adults?

No, umm the only adult that

The tape cut out here.

Other children in the residence?

Umm I have five kids.

OK so there’s 4 others in the residence?

There’s three right now.

Ok. Where is the other one?

My son is at visitation with his father.

Note: he is not visiting with his father, but “at visitation” suggests court ordered or supervised.

Ok. So you got up at 6:30 this morning with her?

Yes she got sick. Yes

This should be considered sensitive; via repetition and that the time frame is mentioned and she repeats about being sick. That the child was sick may prove vital in the investigation.

She went back to bed, went back to sleep and you laid down on


How old are your other children that are in

Ok did any of them see her this morning? What time did they get up?

The compound question is to be avoided.

They came in here umm, I’m not sure maybe around 7, 7:30, came in my room with me.

Please notice that the additional qualifiers are found when asked about timeframe.

“I’m not sure” is a qualifier

“maybe” is a qualifer

“around” is a qualifier, equally three in one sentence to this point, but then she says “7, 7″30,

which is the fourth. Investigators assuming that this is sensitive and deceptive would be correct. Overall, her time frames are sensitive and she does not appear truthful about them.

Ok you said 11 year old 9year old and 8 mos?


Ok can you look outside and see the officer?

Yes Inaudible Oh God.

In the front. Oh my god. Yes I see one out here.

Please note that in these two calls, she appeared to avoid talking about her husband, Aliayah’s step father. Statement Analysis means not only looking at the words chosen, but what is missing.

It can be assumed that the following are sensitive to Lena Lunsford:

  1. Time Frame
  2. Actual Searching
  3. “Up” versus “down”
  4. Her husband; Aliayah’s step father

It appears that she does not want them looking for Aliayah, as she has already told them that she has searched “everywhere” and that being only 3, she could not have walked far, but “we” have been “up” all the streets in the area.

It should be noted that twice she formed the words “I’m sorry” in this call. This is often an indicator of a form of regret; for some, they are sorry for what they have done (or failed to do) and for others, they are sorry for being caught.

It is likely that Lena Lunsford knows more than what she has said to police and may be directly involved, or may be covering up for someone else, including her husband. Careful interviewing and polygraphs should be conducted also with the grandmother, and from other statements, the aunt.

Others will weigh in on the crying; those trained in voice recognition, for example; though at times, to my untrained ear, the crying sounded contrived and forced.

911 Call Analysis Conclusion

Lena Lunsford is being deceptive by withholding information, and the searching, timeline and topic of her husband should all be considered sensitive areas for her.

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Aliayah Lunsford: Dealing With the Unexpected

Originally on Statement Analysis Blog (here).

Last Saturday, 3 year old Aliayah Lunsford was reported missing by her mother, Lena Lunsford, after she reportedly searched for her child for about 2 hours.

Suspicion followed the report when the mother was ‘interviewed’ by local media, seated next to her own mother and said, “we want her back home.”

Statement Analysis response was to report this short sentence “concerning” because of the pronoun “we” from the mother. This pronoun is sometimes heard when both parents are seated together, being interviewed as a couple, but a mother, given the nature of powerful maternal instincts (which Solomon knew to exploit in order to access truth from deception) most often uses the pronoun “I” when speaking about her children.

Statement Analysis deals with the unexpected. This is a principle to embrace.

The mother said, “We want her home.” This doesn’t sound wrong. So:

What was expected?

Lena Lunsford also praised law enforcement as doing everything they can.

What was expected?

We ask people to try to put themselves into the position of the subject. This presupposes sanity, reason, and innocence. It is not always the case. We also rely upon mountains of research; some of it in neat packages and easily available, and some, as Mark McClish recently addressed, is still developing. He had observed, in many years in law enforcement, that people seem to gravitate towards the number 3 when they are being deceptive. It was just something he noticed. After he retired from the US Federal Marshals, he had more time to devote to Statement Analysis. He has even trademarked the phrase “Statement Analysis” and it is his passion. He has begun something very exciting to those of us who also have a passion for discerning truth: studies. This way, he is building data to back up his observations (I have empirical evidence also buttressing his finding that deceptive people will gravitate towards the number three) which, eventually, psychology may help us understand why this number is used.

A patrol officer can do a dozen “interviews” in a single day, as you picture him with a little notebook and pen, asking questions at almost every call he answers. This is invaluable experience building.

Counselors, therapists, social workers, ministers, and others are in a similar situation. Parents, school teachers, and so many others can build natural “interviewing” skills of careful listening and observation. In this real sense, it is a form of “code breaking” done ‘on the fly’, that is, as things are happening.

Watching the early (and very short) video of Lena Lunsford saying “We want her home” caused Heather to say “she just shook her head ‘no’ while she said that!”, and replaying the video clip, I saw that she was correct, and that Lena looked away. Not being experts in body language, I found the incongruity of her body language to match the unexpected use of the pronoun, “we”. Here is the unexpected:

I expected a mother, maternal instincts inflamed, to say “I” in speaking for herself; especially since her husband (or the child’s step father) was not present. In fact, if you look at Christopher Dilliham’s work, he shows that “we” is used as a form of weakness (where guilt is present, the guilty often seek to spread out the guilt by using “we”; comforting themselves in a subtle manner).

When she said “we want her home” it was the unexpected that needed statement analysis.

“We want her home” is then used to say, by itself, this is concerning that the mother did not use the more personal and stronger, “I”that I expected a mother to say.

Next, she said that law enforcement was doing everything they could.

This was also unexpected.

I expected a mother to be on pins and needles with no satisfaction; only impatience as she frets over her child.

Mother did not make a plea, immediately, for ‘whoever has her to return her’ or even address Aliayah. Innocent mothers do not need to be coached to address the missing child; they can do nothing else but address their child. The lack of addressing a missing child, or the need to be coached into doing so is a red flag of concern.

We expected Lena Lunsford to show impatience with law enforcement; not resignation. Resignation is something we see sadly creep in after months (see Desiree Young) of failure to find the missing child. Showing impatience, or criticism of law enforcement months later is more likely associated with a contriving parent, feigning anger towards law enforcement much later in time of the case.

These two unexpected responses now coupled with Heather’s observations about the video (both the shaking of the head ‘no’ and the looking away) now caused me to write:

this is concerning.

But in an almost domino like manner, things surfaced that built upon this concern:

  1. Why did law enforcement call press conferences to say nothing?
  2. Why was no reward offered early?
  3. Since the case was on HLN, why didn’t parents appear?
  4. Why didn’t local media ask mother questions?
  5. Why did the family give media a sad picture?
  6. Why did the aunt, who lives locally, speak of her in the past tense?

This was alarming.

The aunt spoke of Aliayah about Christmas time, which was 10 months ago. If she lived in another state and hadn’t seen her since Christmas, this would make sense, (be expected) but since she lives right there, this was the “unexpected”, which is what we deal with.

When we learned that Aliayah, at 3 years of age, was missing 4 front teeth, I thought, “uh oh, that sounds like bottle rot”, where a child is given sugars in a bottle to quiet her down because the mother is overwhelmed. Of course she could have fallen, but with soon to be 7 children by a 28 year old, my mind went to Neglect.

Would I have immediately thought of bottle rot had I not heard the initial “we want her home” statement?

I’m not sure.

Another sharp commentator asked about the story that Aliayah was supposed to spend the night at a friend’s house, but “messed” herself, wondering if there was a correlation between this and sexual abuse. It is this type of thinking, as vile as it may be, that causes investigators to get answers. They must be on alert for the unexpected.

Some asked about a 3 year old sleeping over a friend’s house. Again, this is dealing with the unexpected. We would not expect to hear of a 3 year old sleeping at a friend’s house, but in a household of neglect, children are often “parentified” and expected to do for themselves things that most feel are best handled by adults. When Breeann Rodriguez went missing, she was being watched by another sibling, a child far too young. It was the unexpected. That Lena Lunsford reportedly stopped to buy cigarettes to smoke just prior to giving birth tells us of her priorities, satisfying herself at the expense of the preborn twins.

Others pointed out, “how could she have the presence of mind to stop and buy anything thinking her 3 year old is missing” which was a great use of the expected and unexpected. Of course, some will say “I smoke and drank through pregnancy and was a wonderful mother!” which is an indicator of so much else, but will hinder their ability to do analysis. Some can learn from mistakes and be honest about mistakes made, and are capable of analysis, but others will excuse the expected because their own expectations are skewered. Newborn babies experience withdrawal from nicotine at birth, so given how miserable adults can be when trying to quit smoking, how much more so for a newborn with no coping mechanisms available to them?

Although most parents would not allow their 3 year old to sleep over at a friend’s house (3 year olds from most homes would be fearful of sleeping over anywhere), this expectation is lost upon a neglectful mother. The children of neglect often have strong bonds; but the bonds are nervous, unhealthy bonds.

That the mother (or aunt?) mentioned that the child “messed” herself is concerning. (this will be for another discussion). It would be helpful to have the direct quote as well as statements from the step father.

Then, we learned that Lena has a criminal history. Now we have a pattern of life emerging.

Astute commentators here asked if it were possible that this child died 10 months ago, at Christmas of last year.

A neighbor said that when the kids came over to borrow gas, none of them mentioned a missing sister, and that when the mother was doing her own “search”, another neighbor was working on his truck and no one came to ask, “hey, have you seen my little girl?”

Local rumors speak of violence and then, lastly, of drugs. A picture emerges…and finally, the mother lawyers up.

The mother has need of a lawyer. People need lawyers at times in life, but when a mother needs an intermediary to deal with law enforcement officials who are searching for her “missing” child, the logical assumption is that the mother is in need of protection because her interests differ from the interests of her missing child. Since the only interest of a three year old who is missing would be to be found, it is alarming that Lena Lunsford’s interests differ from this.

This will not end well, but I do expect some answers to come shortly. Police are conducting themselves, or so it appears, with one eye on the Orlando jury.

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Aliayah Lunsford: Questions and Answers

From the Statement Analysis blog (here).

Today is Day 6 in the search for Aliyah Lunsford, 3 year old, who was reported missing on Saturday, September 24, 2011. Police have released little information regarding the investigation, other than to say that their search parameters have been limited and purposeful.

One local station reported that the Lunsford home has been declared a “crime scene” and that police searched the home, only in earnest on Wednesday, removing many items in evidence collection.

Statement Analysis has been limited since the mother has said very little, and the step father has not spoken to media. What follows is Question and Answer about the case, and what we know thus far.

Q. Is the mother a suspect?
A. Police have not said who is, or isn’t a suspect, or “person of interest”, other than to say that they have polygraphed and interviewed many, including known sex offenders in the area.

Q. What did the mother’s video appearance indicate?
A. Media showed a short video clip of the mother sitting next to Aliyah’s grandmother in which the mother said, “we want her to come home.” While she said this, she looked away and shook her head ‘no’. I am not an expert in body language, but this appeared contradictory.

Q. Has Statement Analysis made a conclusion?
A. No. The sample is too small for a conclusion, but the few statements by the mother and the aunt are concerning. Here is why:

The mother said “we want her home” using the plural, “we”, as she sat next to her own mother. This is appropriate when someone speaks for another, but is weak (Dilingham) when we expect someone to speak for himself or herself.

In missing child cases, we sometimes see a mother and father appearing together on camera, with the father often using “we”, speaking for both, but in the earliest days of a disappearance, we normally find the mother using the stronger, and more personal, “I”, as her focus is solely upon the missing child. The husband may use the plural more often, indicating that he feels a sense of responsibility towards both child and spouse, but a maternal instinct often is so focused that the singular, “I” is more often heard.

In this case, the mother was not speaking for her husband, nor for the child’s father. If the grandmother lives in the home and is co-caretaker for the child, the use of “we” is less concerning. If the grandmother does not live in the home, and is not co-raising the child, the use of “we” bothers me.

Q. What do you make of the picture of Aliyah?
A. I don’t know what to make of it. Who submitted it to the press? Why would such a picture be submitted? The child appears sad, and there may be a bruise above her left eye. By itself, it may not say much, but when taken with other details, it bothers me.

Q. What other details?
A. Particularly bothersome is the missing teeth. Media reports that the 3 year old is missing her 4 front teeth. Too often I have seen this due to bottle rot, as a result of neglect. Aliyah could have fallen in an accident, but as pieces of the puzzle come together, it may prove to be from neglect. A neglected child, especially by a mother who is overwhelmed (She is 28 years old and shortly will give birth to her 7th child) and puts her child to bed, constantly, with a bottle, often with high sugars, including sodas, which rot out a child’s mouth, and can even cause deformation. Her aunt said she is “pretty close” to the family. What does that mean? How does someone describe a 3 year old as “pretty close” since a 3 year old is vulnerable and dependent?

In neglected homes, outsiders will often describe the children as “highly independent” or “old for their age” because the children learn, early in life, to fend for themselves due to neglect, not maturity. Older children are often “parentified”; that is, they act like a parent to a younger child.

The expectations by neglectful parents often shock outsiders (as well as medical professionals and social workers new to their field) as the neglectful mother, for example, expects a child to take care of responsibilities that most parents believe are best carried out by adults, including supervision, hygiene, and dietary. The neglectful mother will go into rage when challenged, rather than remorse; often carrying on the way she herself was raised.

Other details include criminal history of the mother, including a law suit against the state’s Dept of Corrections. Locals speak now of rumors of drug abuse, and that the child’s father was not informed of his child.

The aunt is reported to live next door, and described the child in past tense language. She appeared to speak of Christmas (a past tense event) but continued and may have spoke of the child in general terms this way. This is an indication that the aunt may believe the child is deceased (or possess knowledge) of it. Have the police indicated to her that Aliyah is likely dead?

Q. Why hasn’t the mother and step father spoken publicly?
A. I don’t know.

I had expected the mother to make an appeal of some sort, but the lack is concerning.

In the short interview with local media, we do not hear media asking questions and it appears to be heavily edited. This is a shame.

In a missing child case, the more information we can glean from those of the household, the more we learn. Sometimes in a quest to land an interview, politeness gets in the way of investigative journalism. Aliyah is a citizen and deserves, in the least, strong questions asked to those who were the last to be with her.

Q. What do you make of the mother’s searching?
A. The time line is unusual.

The child is only 3, and was said to be afraid to go outside alone. I can see a mother running to the houses next door, or across the street, then calling 911. This would take 10 or 15 minutes, not 2 hours. The fact that she drove around until she ran out of gas has an alibi-building feel to it.

As many of you know, the 911 call transcripts would be revelatory. Guilty callers and innocent callers are very different and the analysis of such is not complicated.

Q. Why did the mother’s praise of law enforcement bother you?
A. It bothered me because I expected to hear impatience and anxiety, not what sounded to me like resignation. I am not a body language expert, but her body language bothered me. When she said that they were doing all they could, the words felt like they came from someone who knew the outcome already. Others feel she was sincere and they were not alarmed.

She could have come across as resigned due to exhaustion. I leave it to the experts and feel uncomfortable disagreeing with experts.

It is easy to explain away anything.

The mother was out of her mind with anxiety so she searched…the sad picture was something they found to be cute…the teeth fell out naturally…the mother’s criminal history has nothing to do with anything….and on and on.

Yet, it is a stretch to ignore all of these things when taken together.

Q. Is Aliyah alive?
A. I don’t know. The best indicator would be the mother. If a mother, who has a natural, God given denial, speaks of her missing child in the past tense, the mother is telling us the child is dead. If this is early in the investigation, and police have not told her so, it is an indicator of guilty knowledge. In this case, the mother has not spoken much to the public.

As time goes by, hope decreases for many. For others, Jaycee Dugard will always be the reminder of beating the odds. But in the cases where the odds were beaten, like Elizabeth Smart, we had families who cooperated fully with police and did not lie.

In this case, we don’t know if the family is cooperating, as police have been tight lipped. I would be more comfortable if the parents appeared on television and pleaded for Aliyah’s safe return.

As in other cases, drugs and children do not mix. We do not know that drugs were involved here, but the criminal history and local rumors point to it.

The mother has not been polygraphed as she is about to give birth to twins. If they are found with drugs in their systems (DAB: Drug Affected Baby), an automatic report to Child and Family Services is generated by the hospital.

Q. How will this end?
A. I don’t know. Right now, it does not look good and police need to work from the inside out; that is, to clear the family first, and work the circle’s outer rings. This begins with the parents and siblings, and then to family close by, neighbors, and on it goes until it reaches the theory of stranger abduction. There have been no signs of forced entry in the home.

John Walsh advises parents to polygraph and clear themselves immediately in order to speed up the investigation. When parents (or family members) hinder an investigation, like Josh Powell, for example, there is a reason to do so.

When a parent lies while a child is missing, the parent has a reason to lie. This then causes the investigation to be focused upon the liar, and no further, until the truth is known.

With some real concerns, along with suggestions of criminal history and possible substance abuse and neglect, the case of Aliyah Lunsford does not look good, and the focus remains on the family.

The public speculates on what happened, as is a natural response to any mystery at any time. We all wonder what happened and who is responsible. Was it a stranger abduction? Was it a sex offender? Was it the step father?

Q. What scenario are you thinking happened?
A. I don’t know what happened. With cases with little sample of statements for analysis, my opinion often changes with each new bit of information released.

At this point, I am thinking that Aliyah may have died and the parents disposed of her body in fear of an investigation. Here is why:

We learned that the 3 year old was reported to be staying overnight at a friends, was sick, had messed herself, and had to be brought home.

3 is young for a sleepover, but children that are brought up in neglectful homes sometimes quickly attach themselves to others and act much older than their age. Who raised Aliyah? Was she raised by her mother, her grandmother, her aunt, or others?

She was reported to be still sleeping at 9 or 9:30 in the morning, which is unusual.

One scenario which police should look into is to learn if the child had become sick, and was given the wrong medicine (dosage, rx, etc) died, and the mother/step father panicked and disposed of the body. This is similar to shaken baby syndrome where a crying baby is shaken, without premeditation, becomes silent, and dies.

The police are searching water close by, which suggests a deliberate hiding of the body.

Was Aliyah given adult medication to make her sleep? The inadvertent death due to such would cause a parent with criminal history to panic, knowing that tests would show drugs in the child’s system.

Reports are that there are no signs of a forced entry, and that registered (or known) sex offenders have been interviewed.

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Aliayah Lunsford Allegedly Last Seen

  • 2826 days, 2 hours, 11 minutes ago

About Aliayah Lunsford

Age 3, Aliayah Lunsford's mother claims that she last saw her daughter at home on September 24, 2011 around 6:30 a.m.

Aliayah has brown eyes and hair, is around 3 foot tall and weighs about 30lbs.

Last seen wearing purple Dora the Explorer pajama bottoms, pink princess sweatshirt and no shoes, Aliayah's ears are pierced and she is missing four (4) front teeth.

If you have any information on her whereabouts, call the Lewis County Sheriff's Department at 304-269-8245.


What happened to Aliayah?

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